March Madness Predictions

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Here's a few more things to think about as you are about to make your bracket selections. These are a few stats that I have accumulated for the seed matchups in the first round for the past 5 years:

The number 1 seed in the tournament has won by less than 15 points six times in the five years. The closest a 16 seed got to beating a 1 seed in that time was 10 points by East Tennessee State against Pittsburgh last year.
No 2 seed has lost in the first round since 2001, but there have been several scares. This includes 6 games in the last 5 years that have been decided by less than 10 points. Belmont loss by 1 point to Duke in 2008 and Winthrop almost beat Tennessee, losing by 2 in 2006. (2010 Villanova won by 3 in OT against Robert Morris)
There have been two 14 seeds to take out 3 seeds in the past 5 years. These were Bucknell over Kansas in 2005 and Northwestern State over Iowa in 2006. The previous two years have seen mostly blowouts for this matchup but there were many tight matchups the previous 3 years. (2010 Ohio takes out Georgetown convincingly)
There have been five 13 seeds to take out 4 seeds in the past 5 years, once in 2009, twice in 2008, once in 2006 and once in 2005. Cleveland State won going away against Wake Forest last year in the largest margin of victory - 15 points. (2010 Vanderbilt loses on last second shot to Murray St)
Number of times a 12 seed has beaten a 5 seed: 2009 - 3 out of 4; 2008 - 2 out of 4; 2007 - 0 out of 4;
2006 - 2 out of 4; 2005 - 1 out of 4; 2004 - 2 out of 4
Number of times a 11 seed has beaten a 6 seed: 2009 - 1 out of 4 (two losses by 1 point); 2008 - 1 out of 4;
2007 - 2 out of 4; 2006 - 2 out of 4; 2005 - 1 out of 4; 2004 - 0 out of 4 (2010 already 2 of 2 #11 seeds over #6 seeds)
Number of times a 10 seed has beaten a 7 seed: 2009 - 3 out of 4; 2008 - 1 out of 4; 2007 - 0 out of 4;
2006 - 2 out of 4; 2005 - 1 out of 4; 2004 - 1 out of 4
Number of times a 9 seed has beaten an 8 seed: 2009 - 2 out of 4; 2008 - 2 out of 4; 2007 - 3 out of 4;
2006 - 1 out of 4; 2005 - 3 out of 4; 2004 - 1 out of 4

March Madness Predictions

Here are some of my nondescript march madness predictions:

There will be no upsets of any 3 seed or higher, although one team will come within 5 points of doing so.
No 4 seed will lose to a 13 seed this year. The closest games will be Maryland vs Houston and Purdue vs Siena.
Two of the 12 seeds will beat 5 seeds again this year.
One of the 11 seeds will beat a 6 seed this year.
I don't do predictions on 7-10 or 8-9 matchups - mainly because I always get about half of them wrong.
One of the number 1 seeds will lose before the Elite 8 to a 4th or 5th seeded team.
Two of the number 1 seeds won't make the Final 4.
At least one 2 seed and one 3 seed will not make it to the Sweet 16.
A number 1 seed will win the championship this year.
The highest seed to make the Sweet 16 will be a 7 seed and the highest seed to make it to the Elite 8 will be a 6 seed.

Now, here are my predictions that correlate with the above:

The one team that will come within 5 points of knocking off a top 3 seed is UCSB vs Ohio St
The two 12 seeds that will win this year are Cornell vs Temple and Utah St over Texas A&M. The one 11 seed that will win this year will be Minnesota over Xavier.
The one number 1 seed that will lose before the Elite 8 will be Duke who will lose to Purdue.
The other number 1 seed not to make the Final 4 will be Syracuse who will lose to Pittsburgh.
The number 2 seed that won't make it to the Sweet 16 will be Kansas St who will lose to BYU.
The number 3 seed that won't make it will be Georgetown who will lose to Tennessee.
The champion this year will be Kansas.
The highest seed in the Sweet 16 will be 7 seed BYU.
The highest seed in the Elite 8 will be 6 seed Tennessee.

These are only my predictions and of course they will probably get ruined like half of the brackets out there will be after the first two days. I didn't go too bold this year, but in the last couple of years the elite teams (4 seeds and better) are kind of distancing themselves from the lower seeds in the past few years. That and teams no longer look by 13 and 14 seeds because of recent upsets.

The one only game that would concern me with any of the top 4 seeds is Maryland vs Houston. Houston may not know that they are supposed to lose to Maryland after winning their conference tournament and sniping an At Large bid. That could be the most probable upset. Siena has won the past 2 years in the tournament, so there is no way that Purdue will take them lightly. I don't really see any of the top 3 seeds being challenged in round one. Thought I'd pick a close game for fun.

Update - March 19

First day is done, let see how I've done so far. My personal bracket has 11 picks right in the first round. I missed Georgetown, like most of the country, Vanderbilt (Murray St is no joke), Texas (up 8 points in OT), Marquette (last second buzzer beater), and Notre Dame (first game ended). Two of my Sweet 16 picks are out (Vanderbilt and Marquette) but I still have all of my Elite 8 intact (for now)

As for my predictions above, there has already been a 14 over a 3 and a 13 over a 4 busting that prediction. There have already been two 11 seeds to beat 6 seeds, busting another prediction. Another team did come within 5 points of beating a #2 seed (Robert Morris and Villanova). Not making me feel to positive about Villanova going to the Final 4.

We shall see how the rest of the 1st round turns out. There are three 4 seeds and three 5 seeds playing today. The real test to my brackets will be the next round though, where I have a number of upsets that need to take place.

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