March Madness Predictions

2012 March Madness Predictions

Updated March 15, 2012

I do have more than one bracket out there. However, you can take a look at my official bracket prediction below:
(click for full size view)

Here are some quick hitters:

Most Likely to Win

10 of the last 12 National Champions had a winning percentage of at least 82% - Teams that qualify this year: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Duke, North Carolina, Missouri, Murray State, Wichita State, New Mexico, Creighton, Harvard, St Mary's, VCU

10 of the last 12 National Champions have also averaged 77 points or more per game - Teams that qualify this year: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana,  Duke, Wichita State, Creighton, Belmont, South Dakota St, Davidson, New Mexico State, BYU, UNC-Asheville, Long Island

10 of the last 12 National Champions have also outscored their competition by at least 14 points per game - Teams that qualify this year: Missouri, Kentucky, Syracuse, Ohio State, North Carolina, Kansas

Teams that were in all three lists: Missouri and North Carolina
Teams that were in two of the three lists: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Wichita State, Duke, Creighton

The exceptions are the 2011 UConn Huskies (in all 3 cases), the 2000 Michigan State Spartans (in 2 of 3) and
the 2003 Syracuse Orange (only 10 PPG winning margin)

Least Likely to Lose Early

This is a list of teams that I don't think will be upset in the first round and should at least make it to the Sweet 16:

1 Seeds - All 4 teams; most likely to lose first - Michigan State or Syracuse in the Sweet 16
2 Seeds - Missouri, Ohio State, Kansas; most likely to lose first - Duke in Sweet 16
3 Seeds - Baylor - Either one or more will lose before Sweet 16: FSU, Marquette, Georgetown
4 Seeds - None; Indiana is hurt by injured player, Louisville is far from a lock
5 Seeds - Wichita State, New Mexico; watch for Vandy or Temple to lose
6 Seeds - Murray State; SDSU is a solid play, but Cincy and UNLV probably won't make it.
7 Seeds - St Mary's; Gonzaga not out of consideration, but don't expect Florida or Notre Dame
8 Seeds - Creighton, Memphis probably have the best chance of beating a 1 seed
9 Seeds - None; Uconn seems like a sexy pick because they never go down in the tourney easy
Double Digit Seeds - Harvard, Davidson, Montana, Belmont, South Dakota St

Most Likely to Lose

The stats from previous NCAA tournaments suggest that you may want to be wary of taking any of the following teams past the first round/two rounds of the tournament (based upon team statistics from this year):

All 15 and 16 seeds (obviously)
5 Seed - Vanderbilt
6 Seed - UNLV
7 Seeds - Florida, Notre Dame
8 Seeds - Iowa State, Kansas State
9 Seed - Connecticut (none are great choices to make Sweet 16)
10 Seed - Xavier (none are great choices to make Sweet 16)
11 Seeds - North Carolina State, Texas, Colorado
12 Seed - South Florida
13 Seeds - Ohio
14 Seeds - BYU, St Bonaventure

Not as good as seed suggests (based on stats):
3 Seed - Florida State, Marquette
4 Seed - Michigan
6 Seed - Cincinnati

First Round Upsets
Most likely 3 seed to lose - Georgetown (based on past NCAA tourneys)
All four 4 seeds have a chance of losing - Most likely Indiana because of injury, least likely Louisville)
Most likely 5 seed to lose - All 4 have a chance to lose (most likely Vanderbilt, Temple, least likely Wichita State)
6 seeds - Murray State (watch for early Thursday upset in tournament), Cincy and SDSU most likely to win
7 seeds - Gonzaga has best chance to win, Notre Dame and Florida has best chance to lose

 

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Updated - March 11, 2012

I'm in the process of making some of my predictions. I think it's hilarious watching the emergency bracket updates on ESPN. I am going to make my decisions separate from them. I haven't been that good with the predictions after the first 2 rounds the past 2 years. Picking upsets is fun, but in reality you better get at least 6 of the elite 8 and 10 of the Sweet 16 if you want to compete. If you can get past the first two weekends, your looking better than most. Then, it's time to root hard for your teams to make the Final 4 and picking the correct Champion is probably the most important.

If you are interested in some Conference Championship and Bubble team information, I found this post that you should take a look at. It shows the current Conference Champions, the teams that are currently locks to make the NCAA and the scenarios for Bubble Teams to make the NCAA Tournament (I know it's past the bubble deadline but it still has information on most of the good teams).

Here is my projections for the NCAA Tournament before the brackets come out. You can see how I did in parenthesis. The only team I missed was BYU and I had Arizona in their place.

Bracket Predictions

1 Seeds - Kentucky, Syracuse, Missouri, Michigan State (UNC instead of Missouri)
2 Seeds - North Carolina, Kansas, Florida State, Ohio State (Duke and Missouri instead of UNC and FSU)
3 Seeds - Louisville, Duke, Memphis, Vanderbilt (Baylor, FSU, Marquette and Georgetown)
4 Seeds - Marquette, Cincinnati, Michigan, Baylor (Louisville, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan)
5 Seeds - Wisconsin, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Murray State (New Mexico, Temple, Wichita State, Vanderbilt)
6 Seeds - Wichita State, Florida, Creighton, Temple (UNLV, Cincy, Murray State, SDSU)
7 Seeds - New Mexico, St Mary's, San Diego State, Iowa State (Florida, St Mary's, Gonzaga, Notre Dame)
8 Seeds - Indiana, UNLV, Virginia, Connecticut (Iowa St, Kansas St, Memphis, Creighton)
9 Seeds - Kansas State, California, West Virginia, Purdue (Saint Louis, Alabama, Southern Miss, Uconn)
10 Seeds - Southern Miss, Texas, Alabama, NC State (Xavier, West Virginia, Virginia, Purdue)
11 Seeds - Xavier, Ole Miss, Colorado State, South Florida, Iona, Arizona (Colo St, NC State, Colorado, Texas)
12 Seeds - Saint Louis, VCU, Colorado, Long Beach State (VCU, Harvard, Long Beach State, Cal/South Florida)
13 Seeds - Ohio, New Mexico State, Harvard, St Bonaventure (Davidson, Ohio, New Mexico St, Montana)
14 Seeds - Belmont, Lehigh, Detroit, Davidson (South Dakota St, St Bonaventure, Belmont, BYU/Iona)
15 Seeds - South Dakota St., Loyola (MD), Norfolk State, LIU Brooklyn (Norfolk St, Detroit, Loyola MD, Lehigh)
16 Seeds - Vermont, Montana, UNC-Asheville, Lamar, Western Kentucky, Mississippi Valley State
(Got all 16 seeds but LIU Brooklyn)

Last 4 At-Large Bids - Colorado State, South Florida, Iona, Arizona (replace Arizona with BYU)
They changed up format this year and made the First 4 teams play for the 12 seed in the Midwest and the
14 seed in the West. I guess they didn't want an 11 seed make the Final 4 again.

First 4 Automatic Bids - Western Kentucky, Mississippi Valley State, UNC-Asheville, Lamar
I got 3 of 4. Replace UNC-Asheville with Vermont. They are all still playing for 16 seeds in the play-in games.

I will be making my preliminary predictions on either Monday or Tuesday, but I may also wait until after the First 4 is played. You never know if one of those 11 seeds decides to go on  a run like VCU last year.

I know my predictions for the last couple of years have been slightly off, but I would like to know who actually thought VCU would make the Final 4 and Butler would make it to Finals for 2 straight years? This is how you know that the "predictions" that you find anywhere will only take you so far. You will definitely need a lot of luck as well.

2011 March Madness Predictions

So it's once again time to put on my thinking cap and try to predict the unpredictable. I'm still in the process of making my best educated guesses for first round upsets, Surprise Sweet 16 teams, the Final Four and Champion.

Update - March 17

Sorry this took so long to make my predictions. In all my haste of managing all these contests I hadn't filled out my bracket until this morning. I'm going to do the same general predictions followed by my actual upset picks and surprise teams.

1. After the crazy first round last year, things are going to be more quiet in the first round as far as major upsets. I predict that none of the 1 through 4 seeds will get knocked out of the tournament in the first round. 13 seeds Belmont and Oakland have the best shots of winning against the top 4 seeds.
    
2. This year two of the 5 seeds will lose the the 12 seed - Those will be Richmond over Vanderbilt and Memphis over Arizona
    
3. I think that three out of the four 6 seeds will lose to the 11 seed - Georgetown will be the lone survivor after getting clipped in the 1st round as a 3 seed last year.
    
4. No number 1 seed will fall before the Sweet 16 - Kansas will be the first 1 seed to lose in the Sweet 16 (to Louisville)
    
5. A 2 seed will go out in the second round of the tournament (Not UNC - my pick is Texas A&M over Notre Dame)
    
6. The highest seed to make the Sweet 16 will be an 11 seed (Gonzaga)
    
7. The highest seed to make the Elite 8 will be a 6 seed (Georgetown)
    
8. The highest seed to make the Final 4 will be a 2 seed (Florida and UNC)
    
9. The Big Ten and their 7 conference teams will do poorly in the NCAA Tournament. I'm predicting that the conference record will be 6-7 with 4 teams losing in the first round. Ohio State making it the farthest into the tournament. I have them losing to UNC in the Elite 8.
    
10. The National Championship game will be between Duke and Florida with Duke winning.
     

Let's see how long it takes for all of that to go wrong. No matter how good you are at seeing the matchups, a lot of these games can be wildly unpredictable. These are my best guesses after doing a lot of research. They are bound to be wrong and you might not like my picks. We shall see how I do.

 

Here are some conference stats to digest:

Conference tournament records in the NCAA tournament:

America East (Boston U) - 1-14	Atlantic Sun (Belmont) - 0-9	Big Sky (No Colorado) - 3-26
Big South (UNC Asheville) - 1-18	Big West (Long Beach State) - 28-32	Colonial (George Mason, ODU, VCU) - 16-30
C-USA (Memphis, UAB) - 50-45	Horizon League (Butler) - 14-12	Ivy League (Princeton) - 5-26
MAAC (St Peter's) - 5-27	MAC (Akron) - 16-31	MEAC (Hampton) - 2-22
MVC (Indiana St) - 24-47	NEC (Long Island) - 0-25	Mountain West (San Diego St, BYU, UNLV) - 10-26
Ohio Valley (Morehead St) - 4-27	Patriot League (Bucknell) - 2-17	Southland (Texas San Antonio) - 3-25
SWAC (Alabama St) - 1-21	Summit League (Oakland) - 0-10	Sun Belt (Arkansas Little Rock) - 14-37
Southern (Wofford) - 6-25	WCC (Gonzaga) - 25-37	WAC (Utah State) - 42-58
		A-10 (Xavier, Richmond, Temple) - 68-71

NCAA Tournament Conference Wins in the past 10 years

America East (Boston U) - 1	Atlantic Sun (Belmont) - 0	Big Sky (No Colorado) - 1
Big South (UNC Asheville) - 1	Big West (Long Beach State) - 3	Colonial (George Mason, ODU, VCU) - 7
C-USA (Memphis, UAB) - 33	Horizon League (Butler) - 14	Ivy League (Princeton) - 2
MAAC (St Peter's) - 3	MAC (Akron) - 6	MEAC (Hampton) - 1
MVC (Indiana St) - 13	NEC (Long Island) - 0	Mountain West (San Diego St, BYU, UNLV) - 9
Ohio Valley (Morehead St) - 1	Patriot League (Bucknell) - 2	Southern (Texas San Antonio) - 3
SWAC (Alabama St) - 0	Summit League (Oakland) - 0	Sun Belt (Arkansas Little Rock) - 3
Southern (Wofford) - 1	WCC (Gonzaga) - 13	WAC (Utah State) - 7
		A-10 (Xavier, Richmond, Temple) - 22

The following Mid Major conferences have advanced into the Sweet 16 in the past 10 years: A-10 (6), Colonial (1), C-USA (8), Horizon (4), Ivy (1), MAC (1), MVC (5), Mountain West (2), Southern (1), Sunbelt (1), WCC (4), WAC (1)

The following Mid Major conferences have advanced to the Elite 8 or further: A-10 (4), Colonial (1), C-USA (5), Horizon (1), MAC (1), Southern (1)

Here are the conference records for the power conferences in the last 10 years:

ACC - 89-48	Big East - 96-62	Big Ten - 77-53
Big 12 - 88-54	PAC-10 - 67-47	SEC - 63-51

Here are the conference records for the power conferences in the last 10 years broken up by round:

Conference	Round 1	Round 2	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Finals
ACC	40-13	19-21	10-9	9-1	6-3	5-1
Big East	45-19	28-17	13-15	6-7	2-4	2-0
Big Ten	37-16	19-18	10-9	7-3	4-3	0-4
Big 12	40-15	23-17	16-7	6-10	2-4	1-1
PAC-10	33-14	20-13	10-10	4-6	2-2	0-2
SEC	32-21	16-16	8-8	3-5	2-1	2-0

Here are the records for the seeds over the past 10 years:

Seed	Round 1	Round 2	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Finals
1	40-0	36-4	31-5	17-14	10-7	7-3
2	39-1	25-14	18-7	10-8	5-5	1-4
3	37-3	25-12	12-13	6-6	3-3	2-1
4	30-10	14-16	3-11	2-1	0-2	0-0
5	23-17	17-6	4-13	4-0	2-2	0-2
6	26-14	11-15	3-8	0-3	0-0	0-0
7	24-16	8-16	3-5	0-3	0-0	0-0
8	19-21	2-17	1-1	0-1	0-0	0-0
9	21-19	2-19	0-2	0-0	0-0	0-0
10	16-24	7-9	2-5	0-2	0-0	0-0
11	14-26	4-10	2-2	1-1	0-1	0-0
12	17-23	8-9	1-7	0-1	0-0	0-0
13	10-30	1-9	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0
14	3-37	0-3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
15	1-39	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
16	0-40	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

2010 March Madness Completed Bracket

So, you didn't have Butler in the Finals last year? I'm pretty sure it's safe to say that all of the Perfect Bracket contest people were jumping for joy as Butler made their way to within one shot of a championship. Here is a look at what the perfect bracket would have looked like last year.

***It's a little blurry shrunk down, so click to view full sized view***

I would like to know if anyone out there had both Butler and Michigan State in the Final Four as 5 seeds.

2010 March Madness Predictions

Here's a few more things to think about as you are about to make your bracket selections. These are a few stats that I have accumulated for the seed matchups in the first round for the past 5 years:

1. The number 1 seed in the tournament has won by less than 15 points six times in the five years. The closest a 16 seed got to beating a 1 seed in that time was 10 points by East Tennessee State against Pittsburgh last year.
    
2. No 2 seed has lost in the first round since 2001, but there have been several scares. This includes 6 games in the last 5 years that have been decided by less than 10 points. Belmont loss by 1 point to Duke in 2008 and Winthrop almost beat Tennessee, losing by 2 in 2006. (2010 Villanova won by 3 in OT against Robert Morris)
    
3. There have been two 14 seeds to take out 3 seeds in the past 5 years. These were Bucknell over Kansas in 2005 and Northwestern State over Iowa in 2006. The previous two years have seen mostly blowouts for this matchup but there were many tight matchups the previous 3 years. (2010 Ohio takes out Georgetown convincingly)
    
4. There have been five 13 seeds to take out 4 seeds in the past 5 years, once in 2009, twice in 2008, once in 2006 and once in 2005. Cleveland State won going away against Wake Forest last year in the largest margin of victory - 15 points. (2010 Vanderbilt loses on last second shot to Murray St)
    
5. Number of times a 12 seed has beaten a 5 seed: 2009 - 3 out of 4; 2008 - 2 out of 4; 2007 - 0 out of 4;
   2006 - 2 out of 4; 2005 - 1 out of 4; 2004 - 2 out of 4
    
6. Number of times a 11 seed has beaten a 6 seed: 2009 - 1 out of 4 (two losses by 1 point); 2008 - 1 out of 4;
   2007 - 2 out of 4; 2006 - 2 out of 4; 2005 - 1 out of 4; 2004 - 0 out of 4 (2010 already 2 of 2 #11 seeds over #6 seeds)
    
7. Number of times a 10 seed has beaten a 7 seed: 2009 - 3 out of 4; 2008 - 1 out of 4; 2007 - 0 out of 4;
   2006 - 2 out of 4; 2005 - 1 out of 4; 2004 - 1 out of 4
    
8. Number of times a 9 seed has beaten an 8 seed: 2009 - 2 out of 4; 2008 - 2 out of 4; 2007 - 3 out of 4;
   2006 - 1 out of 4; 2005 - 3 out of 4; 2004 - 1 out of 4
    

March Madness Predictions

Here are some of my nondescript march madness predictions:

1. There will be no upsets of any 3 seed or higher, although one team will come within 5 points of doing so. - Result: 3rd seed Georgetown lost to 14th seed Ohio 97-83. #2 seed Villanova held off #15 Robert Morris 73-70. #3 seed New Mexico held off #14 seed Montana 62-57.
    
2. No 4 seed will lose to a 13 seed this year. The closest games will be Maryland vs Houston and Purdue vs Siena. -  Result: #13 seed Murray State beat #4 seed Vanderbilt 66-65. 4th seeded Wisconsin held off the 14 seed Wofford 53-49.
    
3. Two of the 12 seeds will beat 5 seeds again this year. - Result: One of the 12 seeds beat a 5 seed - Temple lost to Cornell 78-65. Two of the 5 seeds went to the final four.
    
4. One of the 11 seeds will beat a 6 seed this year. - Result: Two 11 seeds won and one came close. Old Dominion beat Notre Dame 51-50 and Washington defeated Marquette 80-78. Tennessee held off San Diego State 62-59.
    
5. I don't do predictions on 7-10 or 8-9 matchups - mainly because I always get about half of them wrong. For the record - the 8-9 matchup was 2-2 and the 10 seeds won 3 of 4 in 2010.
    
6. One of the number 1 seeds will lose before the Elite 8 to a 4th or 5th seeded team. - Result: Kansas lost to #9 seed Northern Iowa. Syracuse lost in the Sweet 16 against #5 seed Butler.
    
7. Two of the number 1 seeds won't make the Final 4. - Result: Only Duke reach the Final Four as a #1 seed.
    
8. At least one 2 seed and one 3 seed will not make it to the Sweet 16. - Result: #3 seed Georgetown lost in the first round. #2 seed Villanova lost to 10 seed St Mary's in the second round of the tournament. #11 seed Washington beat 3 seed New Mexico in round two. 3 seed Pittsburgh lost to 6 seed Xavier in round 2.
    
9. A number 1 seed will win the championship this year. - Result: Duke, a 1 seed, won last year.
    
10. The highest seed to make the Sweet 16 will be a 7 seed and the highest seed to make it to the Elite 8 will be a 6 seed. - Result: 5 seeds MSU and Butler made the Final Four. 12 seed Cornell made the Sweet 16, as did 11 seed Washington, 10 seed St Mary's and 9 seed Northern Iowa. The highest seed to make the Elite 8 was a 6 seed (Tennessee).
     

Now, here are my predictions that correlate with the above:

The one team that will come within 5 points of knocking off a top 3 seed is UCSB vs Ohio St
The two 12 seeds that will win this year are Cornell vs Temple and Utah St over Texas A&M. The one 11 seed that will win this year will be Minnesota over Xavier.
The one number 1 seed that will lose before the Elite 8 will be Duke who will lose to Purdue.
The other number 1 seed not to make the Final 4 will be Syracuse who will lose to Pittsburgh.
The number 2 seed that won't make it to the Sweet 16 will be Kansas St who will lose to BYU.
The number 3 seed that won't make it will be Georgetown who will lose to Tennessee.
The champion this year will be Kansas.
The highest seed in the Sweet 16 will be 7 seed BYU.
The highest seed in the Elite 8 will be 6 seed Tennessee.

These are only my predictions and of course they will probably get ruined like half of the brackets out there will be after the first two days. I didn't go too bold this year, but in the last couple of years the elite teams (4 seeds and better) are kind of distancing themselves from the lower seeds in the past few years. That and teams no longer look by 13 and 14 seeds because of recent upsets.

The one only game that would concern me with any of the top 4 seeds is Maryland vs Houston. Houston may not know that they are supposed to lose to Maryland after winning their conference tournament and sniping an At Large bid. That could be the most probable upset. Siena has won the past 2 years in the tournament, so there is no way that Purdue will take them lightly. I don't really see any of the top 3 seeds being challenged in round one. Thought I'd pick a close game for fun.

Update - March 19

First day is done, let see how I've done so far. My personal bracket has 11 picks right in the first round. I missed Georgetown, like most of the country, Vanderbilt (Murray St is no joke), Texas (up 8 points in OT), Marquette (last second buzzer beater), and Notre Dame (first game ended). Two of my Sweet 16 picks are out (Vanderbilt and Marquette) but I still have all of my Elite 8 intact (for now)

As for my predictions above, there has already been a 14 over a 3 and a 13 over a 4 busting that prediction. There have already been two 11 seeds to beat 6 seeds, busting another prediction. Another team did come within 5 points of beating a #2 seed (Robert Morris and Villanova). Not making me feel to positive about Villanova going to the Final 4.

We shall see how the rest of the 1st round turns out. There are three 4 seeds and three 5 seeds playing today. The real test to my brackets will be the next round though, where I have a number of upsets that need to take place.

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